The search has only just begun!

     In the Spring of 2006 I saw a television show wherein the players were dropped off in New York City and asked to find each other during that day without any further information about what the other players looked like, the time of day they should meet nor the exact location they would meet.  There were six teams, with 2 players on each team.  Some
players decided to hang signs around their necks to make them more visible, others had noise-makers.

     All of them had decided on their own that the most likely time the others might meet with them was 12 noon (the time is anthropocentric knowledge, but there is a universal version of this known as 'local noon', when the Sun/star transits the local meridian of the observer) and three teams independently decided (without knowledge of what the others choices would be) to meet on top of the Empire State building (the tallest public access structure in the city) and the other three teams decided to try to find the others in Times Square (anthropocentric knowledge).

All teams had success in finding the other two teams at their location.  Even though there were anthropocentric reasons for the teams finding each other, I was fascinated that they did find each other in such a large city (which I used to live in for 27 years) lacking specific information about what the others looked like, where they would be or the exact time they would meet.

I see this as perhaps supportive of the logic behind using
"waterhole"-like search strategies.  We are already applying a game theory-like approach in SETI which may assist us in the speculation on possible communication decisions (optimal behavior choices) made by civilizations (multiple players) when the costs and benefits of each choice are not fixed and are dependent on the choices of other players.

THE S.E.T.I. GAME

THE RULES:

1.  NUMBER OF PLAYERS - more than 2.

2.  COMMUNICATIONS STRATEGIES - The strategies for each player are not identical.  (some players will choose different frequencies and methods or choose not to communicate.)

3.  SIMULTANEOUS AND SEQUENTIAL GAMES - In the beginning each player acts simultaneously (Simultaneous Game) and does not have knowledge of the other players actions.  If communication is established then the game may
become semi-sequential in player actions (Sequential Game) resulting in some actions becoming predictable.

4.  PAYOFFS - The payoffs might be different for each player.  These are dependent on the needs and wants of each player which may include:

Technological Advancement - gain for receiver, possible gain for sender if exchange nets new insights/perspectives.  There may also be risks for senders.

Alliance Building/Power Blocks - gain for alliance in competing with other alliances or individuals (altrusim may also be a gain.)

Resource Acquisition - (zero sum game).

Warning/Deterrent messages - to limit expansions or trespasses (zero sum game.)

Vanity messages announcing existence, power, longevity, prosperity, extinction, knowledge level of a player.

Altruism (non-zero sum game)

Extermination - Competitive survival instincts use transmissions as bait signals to gain targeting information from responders.

I'm sure there are others (I need to cogitate on this more.)

COMMUNICATION STRATEGIES (finding other players, or not.  The waterhole" is arguably the best example of this being applied.)

What methods will each player have to choose from?

photons (radio/light etc.)  Which frequencies are logical?  Perhaps those around the elements, see
http://www.setileague.org/articles/protectd.htm

gravity waves

particles

observation/quantum communication (observer focusing events used to send instant messages thoughout the cosmos see
http://noosphere.princeton.edu/terror.html )

Perhaps there are others.

THE DECISION/MOVE MATRIX

EACH PLAYER CAN:
CHOOSE TO COMMUNICATE
CHOOSE NOT TO COMMUNICATE
CHOOSE TO EXPLORE WITH ASTRONOMY (INCLUDES RADIO AND OPTICAL SETI)
CHOOSE NOT TO EXPLORE WITH ASTRONOMY
CHOOSE TO EXPLORE WITH PROBES
CHOOSE NOT TO EXPLORE WITH PROBES
CHOOSE TO TRADE
CHOOSE NOT TO TRADE

The game decision matrix weighs the payoffs for each player.
Payoffs will often be different for each player depending on where they are in the game (what is there level of development technologically and socially with other players?)
Payoff values can drive player decisions, and actions by other players can also be a factor.

The game lasts as long as there are players.

When I matrix this, I come up with (obvious) conclusions:
No payoff for players who don't explore with astronomy (SETI.)
Payoffs for players who choose to explore with astronomy, communicate, align with others, explore with probes, or trade.
Possible detrimental effects from exploring with probes (trespassing) or transmitting (giving away your position) or not aligning in power blocks.

The assumptions we make about frequencies and what others do to find each other are possibly akin to the assumptions the players in New York made to find each other.  We are in the SETI game, whether we particpate or not.  The question is - Do the other players want us in or out?  

Jason H.

Have game players on T.V. inadvertantly vindicated the SETI "waterhole" approach?

Why SETI search methods should utilize  game theory as a predictive tool.